MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2b3f04151950be43981fc479344a3fe0b7919cb93500cab4908ae2e50bd345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 1,214$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.07 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 1,030$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.73 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 778.89$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 33c | 665.71$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.47 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 363.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.47 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 340.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Over | 34c | 315.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 127.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 33c | 106$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Under | 68c | 83.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 79.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 65c | 75.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 34c | 72.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 65c | 69.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 65c | 67.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 48.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 66c | 45.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 66c | 45.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 66c | 38.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 66c | 30.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…7d09backed Under | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 66c | 28.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 22.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 68c | 21.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.