MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf14fa093b1d2963f1e926d6e76cc33054dcd9b412147715b33b5819f3a249d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 46c | 8,142$3,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,745.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 4,557$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.19 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 3,133$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.89 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 61c | 2,193$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.51 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 59c | 1,196$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.05 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9d1cbacked Over | 66c | 1,155$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 904.64$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 897$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.17 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Over | 40c | 714.28$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 661.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.6 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 40c | 630.38$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.23 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Over | 40c | 476.19$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.71 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 55c | 326.4$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Over | 40c | 238.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Over | 40c | 238.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Over | 40c | 238.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 215.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 36c | 169.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 147.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 48c | 138.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 324 | 34.6%112 W · 212 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 61c | 132.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 40c | 121.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Over | 40c | 119.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…391bbacked Over | 39c | 109.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 105.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 61c | 103$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…4fdcbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…7593backed Over | 40c | 97.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 39c | 85.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 39c | 49.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Over | 39c | 48.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…1bd8backed Over | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Under | 62c | 48.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Over | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Over | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x366f…f952backed Over | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Over | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 41c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 44.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 39c | 34.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 39c | 33.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…f176backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 61c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…5651backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.