MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca7de400ebb37dd0570b0ae1c4c7147c47e80498f123a05fe1305ab286dc1d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 56c | 15,694$8,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,748 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 56c | 12,000$6,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,660 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 10,270$4,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,752.68 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 10,055$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,543.97 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 8,904$3,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,986.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Athletics | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 2,800$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 2,508$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 1,789$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.71 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 60c | 1,753$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Athletics | 56c | 1,466$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.94 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 56c | 1,346$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Athletics | 57c | 892.86$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.93 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Athletics | 3c | 660$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Athletics | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 583.87$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 560$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.8 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 412.78$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics | 56c | 375$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 58c | 340$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 56c | 338$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 35c | 254.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 6c | 213$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Athletics | 57c | 172.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Athletics | 56c | 167.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 58c | 163.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Athletics | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Athletics | 56c | 120.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Athletics | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Athletics | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Athletics | 56c | 83.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Athletics | 62c | 54.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Athletics | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Athletics | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Athletics | 57c | 37.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Athletics | 35c | 37.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Athletics | 35c | 37.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Athletics | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Athletics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Athletics | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Athletics | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Athletics | 58c | 25.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Athletics | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Athletics | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.