Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2c6f42057c66136c8c22830241c60d7f2542bea95975c08c5a97f2418dead6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 331$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 30c | 300.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 290$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 214.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 197.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 190$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 188.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 70c | 136.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 134$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 128.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 125.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 123$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 119.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 119.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 34c | 118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 107.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 93.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e44cbacked Yes | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 21c | 90.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 89.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 33c | 84.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 81.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 72.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 71.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 24c | 70.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 33c | 68.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 66.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 63.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 27c | 63.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 59.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Yes | 33c | 56.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 24c | 55.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 49.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 48.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 46.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 45.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 27c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 76c | 34.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 69c | 34.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 70c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…fdd9backed No | 75c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.