Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf725102ac82f3a427a279d60c825f2edaa4bbbe05cff7dbf174e65b9882d6ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 1,108$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 1c | 1,101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 342.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 73c | 267.85$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 30c | 267.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 215.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 207.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 199.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 49c | 197.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 191.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 20c | 187.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.36 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 186.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 9c | 180.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 166.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 16c | 135.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 134$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 127.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 15c | 121.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 120.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 64c | 120.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 46c | 116.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 109.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 19c | 107.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 77c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 13c | 87.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 47c | 86.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 86.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 46c | 84.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 83.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 76.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 23c | 73.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 19c | 65.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 27c | 61.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 60.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 60.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 58.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 19c | 57.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 55.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 27c | 55.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 45.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 25c | 43.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 47c | 41.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 37.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 36.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 27.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 25.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 54c | 23.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 51c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.