TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Team Liquid, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,765 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked BetBoom Team39c27,944$10,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,001.455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Liquid47c11,869$5,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,545.753451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked BetBoom Team32c11,009$3,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,451.2813020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid29c8,849$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,577.2371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed BetBoom Team38c5,145$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.122445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid62c5,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1009557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Team Liquid53c4,677$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Liquid64c4,071$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60022842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Liquid67c3,481$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.820159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Team Liquid57c3,043$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.1915345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Liquid56c2,960$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66015946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked BetBoom Team43c2,522$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.8148539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Liquid63c2,069$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.056043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Liquid68c1,888$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.8417444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Team Liquid28c1,800$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Liquid66c1,714$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.8718661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Team Liquid43c1,700$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73116142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Liquid68c1,600$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08812547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Team Liquid66c1,504$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Liquid68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.935964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Liquid69c1,450$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed BetBoom Team38c1,284$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.8958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked BetBoom Team56c1,251$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.4838049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team38c1,235$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.812,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid41c1,233$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed BetBoom Team72c1,008$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.5414751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Team Liquid68c1,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6806434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed BetBoom Team33c900$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60033041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team30c899.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked Team Liquid5c834.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.14195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-71%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked BetBoom Team52c700$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed BetBoom Team54c700$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.2119664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Liquid68c698.53$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47528544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked BetBoom Team78c658.57$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.119145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a5…caa6backed Team Liquid57c600$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.84841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Team Liquid41c595.23$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.64440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked Team Liquid11c581.59$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.092646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Liquid9c556.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9865625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed BetBoom Team49c529.73$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.731,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked BetBoom Team39c521.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9212132.2%39 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Liquid5c514.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0952243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked BetBoom Team48c471.71$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9960646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed BetBoom Team54c469$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9136051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Team Liquid66c457.58$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30210949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Liquid52c454.62$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4113455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid42c453.95$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.049430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Liquid68c450$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.58458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Liquid67c432.13$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29155457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid44c415.98$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.621,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Team Liquid31c411.66$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd6…96c4backed Team Liquid50c410.38$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed BetBoom Team39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2446735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid60c400$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24180742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Team Liquid58c396.74$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1110260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Team Liquid55c361.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked BetBoom Team40c337.36$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3516550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BetBoom Team40c332.48$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.491,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dd…d3dfbacked Team Liquid37c328.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Team Liquid68c328.37$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2916440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Liquid62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Team Liquid62c311.82$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3352649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Liquid58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17445457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Team Liquid68c294.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed BetBoom Team76c293.03$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2614443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed BetBoom Team39c290.79$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9115047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed BetBoom Team41c289.65$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.116145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked BetBoom Team48c288.94$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.255550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed BetBoom Team67c266.11$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6130356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked BetBoom Team47c250$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5942145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked BetBoom Team47c246.81$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8112455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Liquid59c242.8$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2691553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed BetBoom Team52c236$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3531245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Team Liquid34c229.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.249350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Liquid68c226.6$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.099440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid20c224.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.862,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed BetBoom Team42c214.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6128549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4814…9a18backed BetBoom Team77c206.66$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.661040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbffe…5664backed Team Liquid62c201.56$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed BetBoom Team45c200.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7345046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x453e…eabcbacked Team Liquid57c200$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1158657%49 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Liquid58c199.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11673743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed BetBoom Team58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8425639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed BetBoom Team39c189.9$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8438653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde95…b97fbacked BetBoom Team34c186.81$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.812161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed BetBoom Team37c185.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0310141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c76…0d35backed Team Liquid8c180.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.241040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked BetBoom Team65c175.62$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.159051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e56…55bbbacked Team Liquid68c174.63$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid60c174.62$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.331,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed BetBoom Team63c170$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7213655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed BetBoom Team56c169.31$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.210134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Liquid61c168.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0319251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Liquid62c160.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6729245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed BetBoom Team41c157.45$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1315549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Team Liquid19c152.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.183145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked BetBoom Team43c151.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.719443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked BetBoom Team35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Team Liquid68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Liquid68c145.59$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…08a4backed BetBoom Team59c145.57$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.383650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.