TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,039 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c29…afadbacked Team Liquid67c21,793$14,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,246.286150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed BetBoom Team42c12,095$5,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,08042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid58c12,000$6,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0409557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked BetBoom Team30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Team Liquid70c9,929$6,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.12828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team34c8,129$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.072,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked BetBoom Team43c7,440$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.9222842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked BetBoom Team32c5,216$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.1141242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid65c4,935$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.8755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team47c4,379$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04753451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed BetBoom Team4c4,044$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1116821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Liquid59c3,900$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.8715946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f72…adc6backed Team Liquid61c3,680$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.083066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed BetBoom Team40c3,637$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.922445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked BetBoom Team39c2,158$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.586043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed BetBoom Team42c1,969$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.0110445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team34c1,878$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.852,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked BetBoom Team27c1,776$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.794245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Liquid71c1,699$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.6720156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid60c1,669$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.1754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Liquid68c1,353$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.0218661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked BetBoom Team17c1,332$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.5812132.2%39 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid60c1,310$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.8555751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked BetBoom Team2c1,283$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-71%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked BetBoom Team32c1,266$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.5638049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed BetBoom Team34c1,246$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.296145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed BetBoom Team33c1,033$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid54c795.4$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.7860349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Liquid63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.659959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid60c789.99$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31623050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked BetBoom Team38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30033845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid62c778.29$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.671,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BetBoom Team40c762.28$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.291,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed BetBoom Team28c725.01$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4531245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed BetBoom Team40c706.81$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.0638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa206…d166backed Team Liquid61c694.99$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.071330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed BetBoom Team33c685.79$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5528544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team38c653.45$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.361,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd5…09c2backed Team Liquid59c630$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed BetBoom Team32c614$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4826550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbffe…5664backed Team Liquid70c610.55$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.992842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Liquid58c599.19$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6611854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed BetBoom Team36c555.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1628549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked BetBoom Team32c541.26$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5837047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BetBoom Team37c541.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2565625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Team Liquid58c535.99$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.122161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked BetBoom Team40c535$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed BetBoom Team33c518.18$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Team Liquid60c498.89$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8910141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Team Liquid61c494.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.594663%29 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team32c479.23$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.512,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked BetBoom Team42c443.49$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Liquid59c420.37$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.379045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed BetBoom Team32c415.83$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.43941%16 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Liquid70c409.38$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3824045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed BetBoom Team43c390.4$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Liquid66c361.71$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed BetBoom Team42c358.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Team Liquid61c355.1$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.749145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed BetBoom Team38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.215653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed BetBoom Team40c325$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13015047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid59c319.05$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13280742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Liquid64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed BetBoom Team33c304.94$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6345046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed BetBoom Team33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed BetBoom Team32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Liquid56c299.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13273743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Liquid57c295.69$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6955457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Liquid69c291.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5846049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed BetBoom Team32c284.36$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9911043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453e…eabcbacked Team Liquid66c250$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848657%49 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked BetBoom Team44c249.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e77…6762backed BetBoom Team31c239.68$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.32759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed BetBoom Team34c237.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9648352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked BetBoom Team45c220.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed BetBoom Team22c213.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4612252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed BetBoom Team30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed BetBoom Team36c186.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0813733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Team Liquid60c185$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed BetBoom Team36c184.77$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed BetBoom Team36c176.72$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked BetBoom Team26c163$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3822954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20bb…de85backed BetBoom Team13c155.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…08a4backed BetBoom Team33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Team Liquid66c143.2$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.212348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Liquid78c143.08$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe599…0dd3backed BetBoom Team35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Liquid65c142.86$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked BetBoom Team27c140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.89223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461f…8719backed BetBoom Team33c139.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469749.5%48 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Liquid59c137.68$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Team Liquid67c134$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448161.7%50 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked Team Liquid77c131.59$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.92744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed BetBoom Team33c121.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55226.9%14 W · 38 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x82cf…d4c9backed BetBoom Team33c120.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.711136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed BetBoom Team42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed BetBoom Team42c119.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Team Liquid61c114.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7560660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed BetBoom Team13c113.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9472637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.