South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03aa99a32d44c37f62b228a1d3117f01d53a7bbe2997bf1048e0b9e37d228e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 35c | 4,846$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.84 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 65c | 4,095$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.67 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 32c | 3,702$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.33 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…b828backed Yes | 1c | 3,438$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 33c | 3,332$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.57 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 70c | 2,712$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.65 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,358$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.77 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 2,193$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.57 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 1,877$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.42 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 65c | 900$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 782.99$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.73 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 666.83$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 289.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Yes | 12c | 276.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 257.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 12c | 160.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Yes | 35c | 82.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 64c | 65.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…82cebacked Yes | 31c | 65.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…aba0backed Yes | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 65c | 60.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 68c | 58.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 64c | 55.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 68c | 51.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 69c | 50.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 68c | 47.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 68c | 44.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 27c | 42.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 38.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 77c | 31.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 66c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-13?this page
- Will CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
- Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.