TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,220 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under48c34,740$16,573 inLost-$16,572.571,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b37…3b3ebacked Over52c31,083$16,163 inWon+$14,919.682147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over53c19,289$10,223 inWon+$9,065.7829351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c8,778$4,239 inLost-$4,239.049,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over51c3,624$1,848 inWon+$1,7761,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c3,299$1,569 inLost-$1,568.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Under47c2,961$1,398 inLost-$1,397.974953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under48c1,446$694 inLost-$69420948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under47c1,100$517 inLost-$5171,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c678.03$320 inLost-$319.994,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Under48c418.96$200 inLost-$20021854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under49c300$146 inLost-$14691148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over51c121.29$62 inWon+$59.722,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6c…a67dbacked Under47c106.38$50 inLost-$506235.5%22 W · 40 L-10.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-29.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under48c62.98$30 inLost-$30.231,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under48c43.93$21 inLost-$21.1830151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c40$20 inWon+$2037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Under50c40$20 inLost-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under47c25.01$12 inLost-$11.8787744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over52c20.55$11 inWon+$9.861,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.