TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,360 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf268…ab74backed Yes33c249.66$83 inWon+$166.413151.6%16 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No53c200$106 inLost-$1062,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No55c193.29$107 inLost-$107.115,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes48c190.6$91 inWon+$99.2140053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No67c119.09$80 inLost-$79.7926069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x997c…a9a9backed Yes47c106.98$50 inWon+$56.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No66c86.18$57 inLost-$56.8890863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e48…6fd3backed Yes37c80$30 inWon+$50.44544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No67c44.39$30 inLost-$29.7495260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98cb…81a9backed Yes49c40.02$20 inWon+$20.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed No62c32.39$20 inLost-$2012257.4%70 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No65c25.72$17 inLost-$16.7222774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb48…ffe7backed No65c19.99$13 inLost-$13650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.