NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbe1db9900f74e8acfddbc912475d09df066235609dee613e080199c0aff43c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 48c | 84,797$40,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,431.27 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 36,595$18,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,723.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 55c | 14,259$7,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,416.65 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 49c | 10,692$5,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,504.07 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 52c | 9,324$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,475.52 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Over | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.23 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 4,696$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 57c | 2,899$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.34 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 51c | 2,594$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.06 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 52c | 1,698$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.69 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 50c | 1,686$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.13 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 1,371$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 50c | 1,204$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 1,006$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Under | 52c | 970$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.4 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 770.74$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 633.01$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 51c | 585.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.33 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 575.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 509.24$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under | 60c | 500$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.44 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 51c | 487.11$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 441.18$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 405$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 50c | 397$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 56c | 253.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 40c | 242.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 54c | 219.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 50c | 212.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 212.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 153.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 52c | 139$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 138.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Over | 51c | 90.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 44c | 88.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…4271backed Over | 56c | 40.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…a765backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6263…f8e1backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 54c | 29.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…cfcdbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…bf81backed Over | 56c | 26.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 52c | 22.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PacersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 253.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 262.5Over won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.