NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce29befe665fe645254ff2edc2450638d6517ae596f527a27b0cedbc054580b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Pacers | 50c | 7,850$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.53 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 57c | 3,984$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 44c | 2,196$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,976$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.84 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,286$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks | 54c | 1,285$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,207$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.09 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pacers | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 50c | 939.66$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Pacers | 56c | 848.21$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks | 45c | 705.14$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.99 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 48c | 701.53$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Mavericks | 51c | 594.98$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.54 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Pacers | 48c | 554.17$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 43c | 515.15$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…a0e0backed Mavericks | 44c | 455.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.68 | 296 | 46.6%138 W · 158 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Mavericks | 42c | 444$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Mavericks | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers | 57c | 363.26$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Mavericks | 50c | 334$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 52c | 286.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Mavericks | 43c | 280$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Mavericks | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Pacers | 46c | 220.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Pacers | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pacers | 55c | 182.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Mavericks | 45c | 178.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pacers | 56c | 177.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 44c | 167.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Mavericks | 42c | 165$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Mavericks | 50c | 145.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Mavericks | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks | 51c | 131.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Pacers | 56c | 129.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Mavericks | 54c | 104.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Mavericks | 59c | 84.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -10.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pacers | 46c | 84.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…1a2dbacked Pacers | 60c | 83.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers | 56c | 75.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mavericks | 52c | 71.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 65.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Mavericks | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Mavericks | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Mavericks | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Mavericks | 42c | 50.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers | 50c | 48.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pacers | 44c | 47.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Mavericks | 48c | 44.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…3fc0backed Pacers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks | 51c | 36.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pacers | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Pacers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Mavericks | 51c | 32.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 30.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Pacers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Mavericks | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Mavericks | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Mavericks | 50c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mavericks | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Mavericks | 60c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PacersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 253.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 262.5Over won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.