NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9608c4333fdf43aff5c4c62db9c8dba3494174ac222e3352a8374a8c2354116c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 55c | 27,928$15,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,620.07 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 22,974$12,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,565.64 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 57c | 18,600$10,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,998 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 16,872$7,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,501.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Under | 45c | 16,470$7,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,411.5 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 12,921$5,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,814.58 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Under | 47c | 5,532$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Over | 55c | 3,399$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.21 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 45c | 3,076$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.2 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 2,027$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,386$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 1,363$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 48c | 1,148$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.04 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 46c | 1,010$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.6 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 632.96$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 489.13$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 431$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 55c | 406.1$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.74 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 56c | 398.86$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 46c | 271$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 55c | 207.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…237abacked Under | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 185.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 47c | 174.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 140.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 101.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36d…de27backed Under | 45c | 96.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 66.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 62.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 56c | 61.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 49.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed Over | 54c | 44.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…d655backed Under | 45c | 35.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 53c | 34.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…2c1ebacked Over | 61c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Under | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 25.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Over | 56c | 22.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PacersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 253.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 262.5Over won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.