NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba657f2c70d7492e9aef0bf7a29994ba0b6af6bc0d42b1467adae4ad4a592037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Pacers | 53c | 16,549$8,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,770.91 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Mavericks | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,950 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Pacers | 50c | 8,084$4,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,036.83 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 50c | 5,861$2,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.44 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 45c | 3,844$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Pacers | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers | 54c | 2,839$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.21 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 46c | 2,013$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.77 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,915$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 49c | 1,093$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.23 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,057$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.88 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 55c | 771.96$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Mavericks | 48c | 668$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.18 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacers | 46c | 657$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.22 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Pacers | 52c | 639.86$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.99 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Mavericks | 57c | 609.3$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Mavericks | 45c | 604$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.2 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Pacers | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Mavericks | 45c | 538$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.9 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pacers | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pacers | 4c | 384$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pacers | 56c | 323.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.98 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Pacers | 55c | 261$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks | 45c | 184.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Pacers | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers | 53c | 158.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Pacers | 20c | 157.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 53c | 109.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Mavericks | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Pacers | 48c | 98.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Mavericks | 49c | 94.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Mavericks | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 51c | 81.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 48c | 80.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks | 52c | 78.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Pacers | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Mavericks | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks | 46c | 54.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pacers | 53c | 51.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Mavericks | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Mavericks | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 42.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -10.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Mavericks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Mavericks | 49c | 36.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pacers | 51c | 34.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…2393backed Mavericks | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pacers | 45c | 30.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Mavericks | 54c | 29.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Mavericks | 47c | 22.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Pacers | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PacersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 253.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 262.5Over won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.