NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe39b104b243c26c71af333caec01f9c1ea94b3fc0d6ad5f02c15e0c221dfcd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 64,358$29,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,681.55 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 55c | 42,470$23,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,172.7 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 18,621$10,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,613.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 5,599$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.56 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 52c | 2,654$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.84 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 49c | 2,494$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.02 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 1,341$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.61 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 1,297$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.68 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over | 52c | 390$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 49c | 270.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 196.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 56c | 194.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 185.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Under | 49c | 146.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 56c | 110.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 105.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 48c | 101.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 44c | 88.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Under | 51c | 75.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 51c | 66.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…2022backed Under | 51c | 59.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…4d19backed Under | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 43.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…639ebacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Under | 50c | 29.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. PacersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 253.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 262.5Over won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.