Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Shapovalov vs. Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a7397d2b9884ae799775a3e84c1dffb9f66bb78e30c6cabddd20c292aaeef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Shapovalov, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Shapovalov | 43c | 9,218$3,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.68 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Shapovalov | 41c | 3,474$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.31 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Shapovalov | 60c | 2,885$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.7 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Cobolli | 42c | 2,355$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.72 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Cobolli | 49c | 2,191$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.17 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Shapovalov | 59c | 2,114$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…3671backed Cobolli | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shapovalov | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…e6efbacked Cobolli | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55a…87d9backed Shapovalov | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…6f15backed Cobolli | 41c | 995$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Cobolli | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Cobolli | 33c | 900$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Shapovalov | 54c | 864.18$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.82 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Cobolli | 43c | 803.33$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.33 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Cobolli | 45c | 771.74$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.74 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…97eebacked Shapovalov | 63c | 715$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Cobolli | 39c | 677.31$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.31 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cobolli | 43c | 650$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.5 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Cobolli | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Shapovalov | 59c | 594.81$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.94 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shapovalov | 57c | 526$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee93…b4cbbacked Shapovalov | 59c | 525$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Shapovalov | 62c | 500.16$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cobolli | 56c | 500$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cobolli | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Cobolli | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Cobolli | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Shapovalov | 56c | 434.68$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Cobolli | 40c | 382$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.2 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…5730backed Shapovalov | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…9261backed Shapovalov | 63c | 260$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Cobolli | 42c | 258.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cobolli | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8145…3155backed Shapovalov | 66c | 248.58$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cobolli | 41c | 245.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…6509backed Cobolli | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cobolli | 39c | 161.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Shapovalov | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Shapovalov | 32c | 129.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…4e4dbacked Shapovalov | 59c | 125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Shapovalov | 60c | 113$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Cobolli | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cobolli | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Cobolli | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cobolli | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…2248backed Cobolli | 39c | 67.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Shapovalov | 30c | 65.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Cobolli | 39c | 52.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cobolli | 32c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Cobolli | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Cobolli | 60c | 33.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cobolli | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cobolli | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Cobolli | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Shapovalov | 63c | 20.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Shapovalov | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.