TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,937 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked OG60c54,054$32,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,648.5155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro41c33,480$13,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,915.022,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Virtus.pro41c16,867$6,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,932.3733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Virtus.pro40c14,926$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,925.8854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Virtus.pro57c6,281$3,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,714.2766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed OG46c6,161$2,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.134468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed OG27c6,135$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.811241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Virtus.pro46c2,539$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.7736851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed OG50c2,299$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.3351751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed OG60c2,188$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.1671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Virtus.pro69c2,054$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.6586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed OG6c1,826$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2340014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed OG60c1,710$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.9769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked OG61c1,513$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.1716550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Virtus.pro48c1,481$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.9632652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Virtus.pro38c1,432$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.122954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked OG61c1,223$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.666753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed OG61c1,178$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.358251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed OG61c1,013$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.511549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked OG20c1,000$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed OG61c989.95$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.8515452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed OG60c956.32$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.31,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Virtus.pro78c864.64$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3657455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Virtus.pro56c849.37$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.246649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked OG38c825.3$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9418746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro39c815.34$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.891,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed OG26c800$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20813027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked OG61c765.5$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.2813247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Virtus.pro54c759.53$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.612,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed OG44c746.6$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.871,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed OG23c550.68$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.38728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Virtus.pro64c516.52$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2231245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed Virtus.pro45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2753943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked OG18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9099844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed OG64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed OG24c500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7155147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG65c464.45$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.451,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Virtus.pro47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5355457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro39c408.72$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.641,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed OG61c404.28$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6410550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed OG61c400.53$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5411450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Virtus.pro80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8036759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked OG60c397.29$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.212348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed OG26c379.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9654753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Virtus.pro56c353.08$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9216945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed Virtus.pro58c347.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.35339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked OG61c338.73$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.036650%33 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Virtus.pro39c335.33$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed OG61c322.95$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.359650%48 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1019…d7cabacked OG61c320.8$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.046650%33 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4be…a13dbacked Virtus.pro53c310.81$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Virtus.pro49c300$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.561548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed OG61c288.96$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.416149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Virtus.pro39c260$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.620043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Virtus.pro53c251.3$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1688166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked OG61c250.23$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3510250%51 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Virtus.pro40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15033549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf151…24c7backed OG61c245.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2116849.4%83 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked OG37c240$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c50…7f4bbacked OG61c238.45$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.025052%26 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked OG61c233.09$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8610352.4%54 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff2…de38backed OG60c231.02$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca0…4b6abacked OG61c227.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.561258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed OG61c224.64$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5710649.1%52 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b48…88f2backed OG61c220.64$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.634447.7%21 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Virtus.pro35c212.89$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.321,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa15…270ebacked OG61c209.32$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.067050%35 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe523…c6afbacked OG61c200.11$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.546050%30 W · 30 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Virtus.pro38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12425147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc667…0359backed OG61c198.63$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7611050.9%56 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked OG62c180.88$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.628257.3%47 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed OG59c170.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Virtus.pro49c170.53$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.976155.7%34 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Virtus.pro39c157.95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.513228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b25…665dbacked OG60c156.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5218…48d9backed OG61c154.05$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5510451.9%54 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d68…21c2backed Virtus.pro47c144.68$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.681163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f8…5bf4backed OG61c130.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.196758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked OG58c129.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff6…702dbacked OG22c129.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Virtus.pro49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.453964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf33…4f09backed OG61c113.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.618055%44 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Virtus.pro78c110$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.626661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9697…8024backed OG61c105.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed OG27c103.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.461,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7981…dd95backed OG61c102.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.125657.1%32 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd74a…a3adbacked OG62c101.79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…b54abacked OG65c101.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b4…17b1backed OG24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0213331.6%42 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked OG23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2337811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked OG23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2337018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed OG10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1079343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Virtus.pro50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88bc…fc0dbacked OG61c91.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.168257.3%47 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Virtus.pro41c85.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3786451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d3…7188backed OG61c85.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.364055%22 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed OG46c83.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.361,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed OG60c82.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0420858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x63e1…802abacked OG14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe64b…9cf1backed OG58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.