CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa120da31798e188bf65bd075005f590831bac75f91f629dd2ee611f0112c1df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof TDK, MOUZ NXT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed MOUZ NXT | 34c | 1,285$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked TDK | 65c | 1,221$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.94 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed TDK | 67c | 1,000$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed TDK | 69c | 785.26$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.26 | 245 | 50.2%123 W · 122 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TDK | 68c | 759.43$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.02 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked TDK | 69c | 752.66$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.42 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed TDK | 72c | 689.42$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ NXT | 34c | 669.81$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked MOUZ NXT | 11c | 667$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked MOUZ NXT | 36c | 607.19$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ NXT | 39c | 547.4$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked TDK | 59c | 544$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.72 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ NXT | 38c | 543.57$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 542.02$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ NXT | 42c | 533.66$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.75 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked TDK | 69c | 477.55$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed MOUZ NXT | 28c | 352$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 246 | 41.9%103 W · 143 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed MOUZ NXT | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed TDK | 37c | 290.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked TDK | 61c | 286.05$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ NXT | 30c | 277.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…ed57backed MOUZ NXT | 56c | 266$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 258$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…7a0ebacked MOUZ NXT | 61c | 239.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed TDK | 64c | 233.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed TDK | 69c | 214.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed TDK | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed MOUZ NXT | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked TDK | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked TDK | 68c | 163$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…bf70backed MOUZ NXT | 55c | 145.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 138.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…9f45backed TDK | 47c | 125.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked TDK | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked TDK | 37c | 113.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 162 | 40.1%65 W · 97 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ NXT | 33c | 111.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked MOUZ NXT | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed TDK | 66c | 106.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ NXT | 37c | 105.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…d632backed MOUZ NXT | 34c | 99.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed MOUZ NXT | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed TDK | 60c | 94.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 303 | 35.6%108 W · 195 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked TDK | 49c | 91.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 364 | 34.1%124 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed MOUZ NXT | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…fceabacked TDK | 63c | 79.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked TDK | 37c | 77.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed TDK | 65c | 76.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4723…5687backed MOUZ NXT | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…b61ebacked MOUZ NXT | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked MOUZ NXT | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 118 | 30.5%36 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed TDK | 71c | 69.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed TDK | 71c | 63.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked TDK | 66c | 59.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60f…17a6backed MOUZ NXT | 50c | 57.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…e5fbbacked TDK | 68c | 57.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…0d11backed TDK | 73c | 52.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…62e6backed MOUZ NXT | 65c | 51.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked TDK | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed MOUZ NXT | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed MOUZ NXT | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked MOUZ NXT | 31c | 48.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…06c2backed TDK | 71c | 46.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed MOUZ NXT | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 42.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed TDK | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed MOUZ NXT | 56c | 39.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked MOUZ NXT | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed MOUZ NXT | 31c | 34.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 187 | 52.4%98 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…9055backed MOUZ NXT | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 85.4%35 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked TDK | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked MOUZ NXT | 62c | 25.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed MOUZ NXT | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed TDK | 64c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed MOUZ NXT | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…e379backed MOUZ NXT | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed TDK | 54c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed TDK | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…f07ebacked TDK | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 WinnerTDK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.