Tennis · resolved market
Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1278d22cc67885db55afbb6218fade466195848e33dc23a42b55b95c398ee0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 3,847$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.38 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 258 | 43.8%113 W · 145 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 2,100$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 1,798$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 1,628$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.85 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 687.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…6b98backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 554.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 371.22$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 48c | 278.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 252$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 207.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 179.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 996 | 49.5%493 W · 503 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…74e8backed Over 2.5 | 52c | 115.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 113.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…c4e1backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 363 | 39.4%143 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 63.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…daa3backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 32.5%66 W · 137 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 72.1%204 W · 79 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 43.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 410 | 45.1%185 W · 225 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 30.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,158 | 41.4%479 W · 679 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 30.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 252 | 34.1%86 W · 166 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…7137backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…4523backed Over 2.5 | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…f76dbacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…5506backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 22.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Fritz vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Rafael JodarTaylor Fritz won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs JodarFritz won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs JodarFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5)Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.