NHL · resolved market
Will the Washington Capitals win the Eastern Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa137c6e52d28ae09c8a3120e8b00449a77d0cfe1f00caf3c24db190b0743bc2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a00…8fbabacked Yes | 1c | 6,008$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbd…4e5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,355$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…e6f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,061$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4af…2f57backed Yes | 1c | 2,054$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…208abacked Yes | 1c | 1,982$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…19dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,952$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d3…e1bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,831$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…e5f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,810$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df4…c663backed Yes | 1c | 1,764$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…ff19backed Yes | 1c | 1,709$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…eb07backed Yes | 1c | 1,671$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…007abacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…ef73backed Yes | 1c | 1,632$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…fbccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,607$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…eaa1backed Yes | 1c | 1,578$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…438fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,551$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821b…c3b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,502$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c3…7a04backed Yes | 2c | 1,478$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…bbaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,461$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…3587backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e67bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,318$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…343fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,301$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…4b2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,297$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…1b61backed Yes | 1c | 1,247$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…ecc0backed Yes | 1c | 1,207$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…2460backed Yes | 1c | 1,187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d01…2a30backed Yes | 1c | 1,154$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaae…db9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…6ac6backed Yes | 1c | 1,007$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…7b8cbacked Yes | 4c | 938$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85c…faa4backed Yes | 4c | 867$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…c178backed Yes | 1c | 829$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…7266backed Yes | 1c | 783$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…c208backed Yes | 2c | 780$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…594fbacked Yes | 2c | 757$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…aba9backed Yes | 4c | 736$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…6a6bbacked Yes | 4c | 718$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…70fbbacked Yes | 4c | 698$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…b984backed Yes | 4c | 626$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Washington Capitals win the Eastern Conference?this page
- Will the Boston Bruins win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?Yes won
- Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the New York Islanders win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Eastern Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.