TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56eb…076abacked No70c12,750$8,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,877.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Yes30c10,123$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,035.9861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes29c9,525$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.191,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No69c2,415$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.372,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No74c2,015$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.0589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes26c1,920$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8219836.9%73 W · 125 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No71c1,610$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No70c1,402$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.0312438.7%48 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No71c1,239$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.999935.4%35 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes27c1,233$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.3111644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes25c1,204$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7752451%267 W · 257 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes17c1,040$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7611141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ddb…44c4backed Yes29c1,033$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.622263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes32c903.67$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.176434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf796…3ac5backed Yes34c895.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb651…2089backed Yes35c869.86$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.521637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c623$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92372.7%1 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick8cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes32c557$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7930349.5%150 W · 153 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Yes28c428.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9315245.4%69 W · 83 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No72c412$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.359436.2%34 W · 60 L-13.1wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x51ad…05bebacked No75c397.44$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.441266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes29c382$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.269052.2%47 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes18c328.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.681513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Yes25c302.66$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7523148.9%113 W · 118 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…5b14backed Yes28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015255.3%84 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes22c230.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+73.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes15c199.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.110336.9%38 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+2.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No70c188.25$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.833348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed No73c185.19$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf1c…380bbacked Yes29c144.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe87…062abacked No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed No76c140.82$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4818931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes17c130.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.185137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f83…a8b9backed Yes31c106.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf975…8647backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0eb…af1ebacked Yes22c103.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2317227.3%47 W · 125 L-17.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2897955.5%543 W · 436 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes23c88.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.423228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd9…0707backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da8…fc9bbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes15c64.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Yes31c62.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.45850%29 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes22c58.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.983852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No79c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes31c44.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a70…a50bbacked No75c40.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.164037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3ed…e29fbacked No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7116158.4%94 W · 67 L+12.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076f…dc12backed Yes33c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc68d…1ad1backed Yes33c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9954049.4%267 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fc…492cbacked No72c27.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb333…e295backed No77c27.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c18.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.042853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick44cpaid+105%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.