NHL · resolved market
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93781b4a7161d8b862042d5c06d6516cd90661fe879278ecd1e3813c6c9b8f8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 70c | 12,750$8,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,877.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Yes | 30c | 10,123$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.98 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 29c | 9,525$2,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.19 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 69c | 2,415$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.37 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 74c | 2,015$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.05 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,920$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.82 | 198 | 36.9%73 W · 125 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 71c | 1,610$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 70c | 1,402$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.03 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 71c | 1,239$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…4654backed Yes | 27c | 1,233$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.31 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 25c | 1,204$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 17c | 1,040$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.76 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…44c4backed Yes | 29c | 1,033$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.62 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 32c | 903.67$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.17 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf796…3ac5backed Yes | 34c | 895.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed Yes | 35c | 869.86$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 623$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 32c | 557$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Yes | 28c | 428.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 72c | 412$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…05bebacked No | 75c | 397.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 29c | 382$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 18c | 328.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 25c | 302.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 231 | 48.9%113 W · 118 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 152 | 55.3%84 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 22c | 230.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 15c | 199.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 188.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…5765backed No | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Yes | 29c | 144.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…062abacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed No | 76c | 140.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes | 17c | 130.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…a8b9backed Yes | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…8647backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Yes | 22c | 103.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 23c | 88.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…0707backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…fc9bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes | 15c | 64.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Yes | 31c | 62.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 58.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 31c | 44.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +12.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…dc12backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…1ad1backed Yes | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 72c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 77c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +105%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?this page
- Will the Boston Bruins win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?Yes won
- Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the New York Islanders win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Washington Capitals win the Eastern Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.