Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa138fe6c2b55146a5aa3b5bc60ab928fb08f330bc9ce6747737e0f8e71bb7060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 69c | 1,086$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.91 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 419.37$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 304.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 216.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 208.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 192.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 78c | 189.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 173.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 171.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 162.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…534bbacked Yes | 76c | 131.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 124.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 68c | 122.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 103.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 14c | 94.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 74.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 54.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 53.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 43.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 41.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 37c | 40.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 39c | 37.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 37.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 35.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 35.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 33c | 34.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 32.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 39c | 29.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 70c | 28.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 48c | 27.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…1aedbacked Yes | 41c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 58c | 26.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 24.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 58c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 67c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.