MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2181add690ca771edb9fe4cc571b8b1488f4461e081e581b9559c7ce37d58be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 11,905$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 11,229$6,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,077.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,416.67 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 7,441$3,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 7,155$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,822.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 7,143$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 6,755$3,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,558.91 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 4,931$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 3,917$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 3,639$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.79 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 3,210$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.92 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 3,105$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…49debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.18 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 2,088$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 2,000$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 1,950$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,530$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,468$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.08 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 1,099$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.78 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,087$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 795.07$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.98 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…ec16backed Chicago Cubs | 15c | 600$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 585.89$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.36 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 404.88$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 387.15$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 339.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.38 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 333.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 224.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 214.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 148$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 144.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 106.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 22c | 104.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 85.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 71.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 53.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 43.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 42.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 40.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 38.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 29.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 28.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 27.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…97e8backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 23.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.