MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6ded4dfa43a0d34feac71e7c7a4ec78562554d822446b5fc9280261063562e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 943.4$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.89 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 34c | 619.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 46c | 523.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.92 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 367.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 36c | 340.33$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.81 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 329.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Under | 54c | 299.29$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 272.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 216.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 195.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 195.61$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 61c | 164.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 145$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 130.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 128.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 117$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 83.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 74.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 45c | 71.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 75c | 46.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Under | 56c | 39.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 37.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…cfbfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.