MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa21a2abac8a4a4023466b12e9c9a46f18e291d64a302fb79ee21ec1602a9b462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 5,222$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 3,392$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 2,342$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.55 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 1,983$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.55 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 1,127$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,049$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Washington Nationals | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 461.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 4c | 347.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…391fbacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 235.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 181$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 154.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 125.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 61.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 48.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…ad38backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…ae3cbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40aa…b99bbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 31.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…8b41backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…af4dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…8539backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 29.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…5ae3backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 29.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…221cbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 28.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…745bbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 28.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…fc5dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 28.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…e021backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…b90fbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…8a41backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…0ab2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 26.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…a5f9backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…8e36backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…b036backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…2421backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b5e6backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…f097backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…b21dbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.