MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0bf3d974e39c823a1bac06f58bbe57b2a639961ef044d705df459619395de2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 57c | 2,330$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.9 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 2,060$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.57 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,120$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 47c | 1,046$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.44 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 567.08$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 54c | 549.14$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 63c | 330.3$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 319.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 37c | 282.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 269.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 40c | 236$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 60c | 236$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 53c | 203.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Under | 46c | 172.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 74c | 94.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 74c | 94.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 94.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 88.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 78c | 83.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Under | 17c | 79.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 49c | 57.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 44.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 60c | 36.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 50c | 31.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 30.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +513.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 59c | 20.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 65c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 19.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2964backed Over | 63c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.