MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b65f9ff9e116c60db7363e60eec43c70382901fd9f6a57b825282a148f6fc81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 2,537$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.68 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 1,508$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.76 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 994.08$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.42 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 930.1$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Miami Marlins | 80c | 792$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 617.18$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 10c | 466$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 441.82$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.35 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 417.86$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.13 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 191.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 190.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 20c | 176.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 107.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 89.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 55.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 47.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 198 | 54.5%108 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 35.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…44e9backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 29.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…d016backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 29.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…8220backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 29.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…3dbabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 28.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 26.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 26.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…3ee7backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…ec74backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 22.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…8799backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd61…7bd5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 22.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…8b1cbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 22.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…ff8abacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 21.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 21.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…97f7backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…6977backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 20.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…0a8dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 20.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…c97ebacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.