MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcdab13195afdae96523561feb4cca87b1dbe55accee100ca763f600da5baccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 17c | 2,727$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.38 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 1,711$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.49 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,186$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.49 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 1,055$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 999.99$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.46 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 937.03$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 788.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 672.19$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 20c | 514$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 21c | 436$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 427.4$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 204$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Nationals | 20c | 151.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 125$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Washington Nationals | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Washington Nationals | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 56.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 50.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 48.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 39.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 37.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…6da5backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 34.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…618cbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 32.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…ef50backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…3732backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 31.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc52…5bd3backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 30.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…1df3backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 29.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8382…962bbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 29.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 66cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…c98abacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…9ce1backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 28.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…6b74backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 28.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 28.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5c…0380backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f6dcbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…a57cbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 27.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfb…3640backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 26.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 25.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…b5f5backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…7451backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 24.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 24.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…8623backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 24.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…cff4backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 24.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.53per pick | 69cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…0bffbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 24.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…c43bbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…47a7backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 22.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf3…7b13backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…9309backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1651…ddacbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 20.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…b1c5backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…13b7backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f4…6045backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…f888backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 18.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.