MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c4fc02a50d87452715467cac16444fbd5e058c1bcd8fcf372e7a276890190c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 43c | 100,000$43,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,999.99 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 57c | 99,640$56,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,792.35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 56c | 38,941$21,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,961.91 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…2988backed Over | 44c | 21,302$9,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,929.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 6,704$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,821.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.2 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 56c | 3,861$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.47 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 44c | 2,953$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.47 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 43c | 2,325$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.25 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 2,296$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 1,882$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 1,762$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.12 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 1,662$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 891.21$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 736.56$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 43c | 662.79$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.79 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 43c | 637.21$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.21 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 37c | 627.56$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 76c | 612.02$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.43 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 550.17$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 52c | 388$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 43c | 290.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 148$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 56c | 136.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 24c | 130$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 44c | 127.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 125.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 44c | 113$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 97.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 46c | 97.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed Under | 57c | 80.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 43c | 79.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 78.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 69.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…028abacked Over | 44c | 56.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 54.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 33c | 45.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…600fbacked Under | 57c | 43.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 41.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 38c | 33.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…26bcbacked Under | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 44c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5da6backed Under | 56c | 20.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…bf5cbacked Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.