College Football · resolved market
James Madison vs. Louisville
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2293f6520cdd32f5e709fadfd195a0c3771fb299e1e5e95ea09d1893126234d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof James Madison, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked James Madison | 15c | 40,536$6,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,099.21 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked James Madison | 27c | 17,356$4,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,763.42 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked James Madison | 17c | 16,636$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.09 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked James Madison | 14c | 8,064$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed James Madison | 17c | 6,733$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.57 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Louisville | 78c | 6,684$5,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.8 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked James Madison | 15c | 6,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…adf4backed James Madison | 17c | 5,888$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…73e8backed James Madison | 17c | 4,120$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Louisville | 79c | 3,108$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.56 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed James Madison | 16c | 3,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked James Madison | 14c | 2,792$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.85 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed James Madison | 15c | 2,505$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.73 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed James Madison | 15c | 2,440$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.43 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed James Madison | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed James Madison | 37c | 1,906$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.26 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Louisville | 67c | 1,806$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.14 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed James Madison | 15c | 1,264$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed James Madison | 33c | 1,190$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed James Madison | 25c | 1,099$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.65 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed James Madison | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed James Madison | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louisville | 71c | 881.52$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.29 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed James Madison | 16c | 760$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked James Madison | 16c | 649.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Louisville | 68c | 647.06$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.06 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked James Madison | 14c | 599.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Louisville | 73c | 585$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Louisville | 70c | 545.19$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.34 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed James Madison | 3c | 545$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed James Madison | 30c | 504.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Louisville | 78c | 500$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed James Madison | 27c | 438.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked James Madison | 28c | 425.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed James Madison | 26c | 383.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked James Madison | 21c | 374.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed James Madison | 35c | 356.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Louisville | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Louisville | 77c | 303.46$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked James Madison | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…3b11backed Louisville | 80c | 219.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed James Madison | 16c | 208.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…80f8backed James Madison | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked James Madison | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed James Madison | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Louisville | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Louisville | 69c | 145.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed James Madison | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…a240backed James Madison | 33c | 107.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…2d4dbacked James Madison | 46c | 103.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Louisville | 72c | 103.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked James Madison | 15c | 95.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked James Madison | 30c | 95.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…f652backed Louisville | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed James Madison | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked James Madison | 34c | 88.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed James Madison | 27c | 87.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…da2cbacked Louisville | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…2a60backed James Madison | 52c | 60.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…541dbacked Louisville | 80c | 50.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Louisville | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed James Madison | 29c | 40.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed James Madison | 29c | 35.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…a34fbacked Louisville | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…19f2backed James Madison | 35c | 34.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Louisville | 70c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison vs. Louisvillethis page
- James Madison vs. Louisville: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville (-14.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.