Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Victoria Mboko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa23a0902c80a3262aef22cd5536c09b361e5408ad112bbe1c1417f5bb2a44c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Kalinskaya, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Kalinskaya | 56c | 186,150$103,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,377.92 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Mboko | 43c | 97,470$41,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,557.95 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Mboko | 47c | 60,703$28,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,172.7 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Mboko | 58c | 10,759$6,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,529.82 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mboko | 55c | 9,128$5,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.22 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Mboko | 43c | 5,814$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.95 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Kalinskaya | 45c | 4,500$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.02 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mboko | 48c | 4,090$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.94 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…12e2backed Kalinskaya | 3c | 4,042$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mboko | 43c | 3,399$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.94 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Kalinskaya | 13c | 3,132$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.16 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mboko | 56c | 3,034$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.12 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked Kalinskaya | 1c | 2,860$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mboko | 63c | 2,443$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.54 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed Kalinskaya | 8c | 2,415$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Kalinskaya | 53c | 1,896$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mboko | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Mboko | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked Kalinskaya | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mboko | 60c | 910$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.35 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Mboko | 51c | 625$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.25 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mboko | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kalinskaya | 51c | 533.35$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Mboko | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Kalinskaya | 53c | 445.86$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Mboko | 79c | 438.57$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…e271backed Mboko | 46c | 435$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.9 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…b5b2backed Kalinskaya | 10c | 406.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1561…1a93backed Kalinskaya | 43c | 388$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mboko | 53c | 353$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.85 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kalinskaya | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mboko | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Mboko | 48c | 221.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…3878backed Kalinskaya | 11c | 201.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Mboko | 46c | 174.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kalinskaya | 35c | 159.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kalinskaya | 23c | 158.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Mboko | 43c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075c…d827backed Mboko | 61c | 127.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked Kalinskaya | 52c | 103$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Kalinskaya | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Kalinskaya | 51c | 79.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Kalinskaya | 50c | 75.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 270 | 63.7%172 W · 98 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Kalinskaya | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Mboko | 49c | 70.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Mboko | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Mboko | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Mboko | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…7deabacked Kalinskaya | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 44cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Kalinskaya | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Mboko | 48c | 41.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed Kalinskaya | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Mboko | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Kalinskaya | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…7e67backed Mboko | 50c | 31.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…fdf3backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…ee9ebacked Mboko | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…a4c8backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Mboko | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.