MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa277b6741a4848240023a6c0562bfb7ea8c616b2de46aac85a04fb93d8dcf2bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 4,172$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.17 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 39c | 2,812$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 47c | 1,897$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,803$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Mets | 39c | 1,022$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.11 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Mets | 29c | 517.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.71 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 39c | 448.19$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 357.58$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…08bebacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Mets | 39c | 140.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 132$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets | 54c | 114.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 113.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 100.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets | 39c | 99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 86.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 39c | 84.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 81.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Mets | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 70c | 60.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 53.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed New York Mets | 31c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked New York Mets | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Mets | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad2…a914backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 39.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed New York Mets | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 47c | 26.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 20.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.