TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under53c188,888$100,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,110.641,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over47c100,000$47,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,00055053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Under54c70,701$38,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,178.4911849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Over47c50,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,499.993060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Over46c45,000$20,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,3007353.4%39 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over47c16,145$7,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,556.6932152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over46c10,787$5,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,780.73,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c8,975$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,775.5811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over52c7,804$4,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,730.954,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under50c7,078$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.858,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over47c6,706$3,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5874,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,18044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Under50c5,046$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.0520648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Over43c4,000$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.0548451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under54c3,703$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.7686548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Over47c3,330$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.9756253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over48c3,261$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.238353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over47c3,237$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.416,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c2,712$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.9610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over47c2,145$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.81,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over46c2,133$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.61,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over47c1,776$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.2887750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under53c1,244$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.474,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under65c1,212$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.5291252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over46c1,150$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.512,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over46c1,024$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.962,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over52c971.5$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.741,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c6…59efbacked Over47c829.66$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over46c652.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1764452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over59c530$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.984,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over47c509.68$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.1384049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over47c488.45$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.8889153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Under62c483.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over46c462.83$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.9365549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over48c439.46$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.981,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over46c380.91$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6975248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over37c358.16$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.375,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Over61c353.33$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.111,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c352.37$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.285,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Over47c349.84$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4227454.4%149 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Over48c322.33$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.6124149%118 W · 123 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Over47c319.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.596953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under58c308.01$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…68f7backed Under61c288.69$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.83470.6%24 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Over72c270.81$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8125751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over54c249.25$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6582636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over41c200$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11958652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10610249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966f…5cdcbacked Under54c185.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over47c181$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.932,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under53c175$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7522448.7%109 W · 115 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over57c169$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.92,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over47c160$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.873849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over46c158.3$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.178,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0c…7794backed Under50c146.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over46c146$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.842,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under52c120$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637755.8%43 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over47c102$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0642355.6%235 W · 188 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed Over45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Over47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under53c99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.471,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf442…2581backed Under51c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.244658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…90a8backed Under54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011138.7%43 W · 68 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over78c90.5$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over48c76.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6324350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under60c72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25750.9%29 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f5…97b2backed Under53c61.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.633650%18 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over47c60.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4952852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under31c60.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.874,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Over47c51.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.458056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over40c50.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.214141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.522554.7%123 W · 102 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Over46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2724749%121 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.840446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d2…9ac2backed Under50c38.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.355440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under53c37.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.053,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over68c35.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.365,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under53c32.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.122,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over49c28.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under53c24.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1734846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under53c22.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9413054.6%71 W · 59 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d57…8e0cbacked Under54c21.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.775442.6%23 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.