MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2cc63fd18a9c76125a8b4f3e54bad30543b016641b1368d784ddbd621962a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 10,866$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.6 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 8,527$4,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,775.01 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…905bbacked Under | 56c | 4,986$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 54c | 4,834$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.44 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 4,607$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 4,044$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.56 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 41c | 1,003$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…8ba3backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 46c | 970.09$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 44c | 909$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.04 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 827.78$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 53c | 701.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.32 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 674.87$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 45c | 612.07$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.96 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 54c | 536.71$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.82 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 495.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.17 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 55c | 461.04$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Under | 48c | 404.27$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 301.81$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 289.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 46c | 264.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 240$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 47c | 227.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 43c | 204$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 17c | 159.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 145.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 56c | 135.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 49c | 132.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 125.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 41c | 124.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 66c | 119.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 108.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 47c | 105.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 95.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 57c | 79.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 43c | 55.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 50c | 52.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 58c | 43.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 42.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 34.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Over | 42c | 30.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 45c | 29.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 49c | 25.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 51c | 21.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688d…fb8ebacked Over | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.