MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876488357e5450c0b8e00cbef233d29ca376b07065263169536202730ef5134f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 1,400$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.47 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 1,030$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 701$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.84 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…e29dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 525.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 478.26$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 474.5$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.31 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 460.79$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 426.6$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Minnesota Twins | 6c | 375.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 312.13$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.38 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 301.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 259.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 217.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 148$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 128.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 125.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 118.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 107.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 104.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 90.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 72.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 67.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 66.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 63.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 57.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 57.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 38.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 25.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 24.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 22.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.