WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32f9f8aa6d9bc90c7047e55787f9ff718a44bed41a4f344f9ff2a29a81aef5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 5,287$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.35 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 2,353$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 1,916$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.39 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 1,099$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.42 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 1,033$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 919.82$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.67 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Seattle Storm | 46c | 761.74$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.34 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm | 44c | 731.04$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.15 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 642.7$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.77 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 588.44$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.91 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 578.15$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.85 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 526.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 520.21$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.52 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +11.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…3023backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 424.04$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 400.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 309.72$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Seattle Storm | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Seattle Storm | 43c | 219.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Seattle Storm | 42c | 181.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Seattle Storm | 53c | 99.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Las Vegas Aces | 61c | 93.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 80.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…f4dcbacked Seattle Storm | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 71.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…ca4fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…abb3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Seattle Storm | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Seattle Storm | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Seattle Storm | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Storm | 45c | 42.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Las Vegas Aces | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…24bbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Seattle Storm | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Storm | 46c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 162.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.