WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d88f0f6c44fa5efb723e14708577f58c60c6d56c116515d061f2bd3670387d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 3,695$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.7 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 3,326$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.01 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 2,799$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.11 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 2,474$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.25 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 830$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.2 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 643.86$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 416.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.91 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…e3bbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 373.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 248.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 110.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 110.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Storm | 63c | 69.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 32.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…650abacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 24.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 162.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.