WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e4c217668e74c93ae176f96922e9e20f0ce05a54e98f7953a4aea9e1fb9699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,049.99 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639c…31e2backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 14,915$7,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,010 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 9,312$4,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,163.48 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Seattle Storm | 56c | 8,935$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,934.84 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 4,664$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 3,557$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.54 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Seattle Storm | 59c | 3,051$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.85 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 1,464$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.71 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,121$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.87 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 825.05$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.02 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 697.85$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.43 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Seattle Storm | 54c | 523.49$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.03 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 465$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…bb1abacked Seattle Storm | 67c | 462.97$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 411.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 381.44$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Storm | 56c | 381.44$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Seattle Storm | 56c | 325$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8927…f5c6backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 265$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…ca4fbacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 148.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 129$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 121$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 84.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Storm | 54c | 77.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 48.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Storm | 60c | 38.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 35.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 34.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Seattle Storm | 64c | 33.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…ee61backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Seattle Storm | 60c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Seattle Storm | 60c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 162.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.