Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36eaa733e8e04a0ae342694f78842ea68c663acd058401c2c62504bebecc7dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 43c | 9,855$4,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,211.78 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Yes | 56c | 6,357$3,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.36 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 21c | 5,058$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.56 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Yes | 69c | 1,821$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 59c | 1,470$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…4fd3backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed No | 54c | 800$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 68c | 557.83$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 25c | 519.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.23 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…cbddbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e5…d052backed No | 77c | 392.21$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…7f90backed Yes | 25c | 392$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b9…488ebacked No | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 56c | 377.22$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Yes | 25c | 323.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked Yes | 25c | 234.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 25c | 208.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 190.87$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 77c | 180.73$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Yes | 36c | 137.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca10…66cabacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 45c | 128.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed No | 76c | 119.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed No | 47c | 100.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…b3c6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 82.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…a61ebacked Yes | 24c | 79.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 53c | 75.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 77c | 48.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…37e1backed Yes | 25c | 44.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 80c | 29.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…0a1cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 62c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-19?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.