Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39fd76fdbb0f83cdd9c42fc31d5d33201bc619169ac41ae40ab78aad817e20f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 34c | 1,108$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.67 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 45c | 585.02$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.59 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 537.84$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.89 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 52c | 344.02$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.19 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 5c | 337.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 324$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 65c | 252.8$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 237.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 216.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 210.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 46c | 198.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 198$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 54c | 181.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 174.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 61c | 165.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 157.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…928ebacked Yes | 68c | 155.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 43c | 148.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 145$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 135.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 131$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 130.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 130.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 18c | 130.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 10c | 121.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 40c | 108.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 56c | 102.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 100.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 44c | 98.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 91.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 55c | 87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 57c | 85.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 77.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 74.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 57c | 62.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 35c | 62.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 46c | 61.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 59.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 47c | 57.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 69c | 54.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 52c | 54.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 33c | 54.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 53.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 52.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 51.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 61c | 48.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 40c | 46.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 27c | 44.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…a6aebacked Yes | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 44c | 36.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 50c | 35.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 41c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 44c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162d…3e63backed Yes | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 44c | 28.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 28.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 38c | 27.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 44c | 26.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 50c | 25.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 48c | 23.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 54c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 53c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 51c | 21.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 59c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 20.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -32.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 69c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 70c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 18.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.