Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bfe7746bde59f1d11e095a11941041701a6331ac3eb93029d7ac3dca3badb92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 7c | 386.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 346.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 77c | 241.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 210.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 15c | 209.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 360 | 32.2%116 W · 244 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 25c | 200.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 153.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 29c | 145.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 26c | 140.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 77c | 129.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 25c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 117.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 109.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 97.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 91.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 75.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 20c | 66.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 76c | 66.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 77c | 64.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 61.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 60.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 27c | 60.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 441 | 39%172 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 56.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 56.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 54.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 75c | 54.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 53.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 51.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 50.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 29c | 46.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 75c | 44.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 43.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 73c | 40.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +12.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 38.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 36.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 74c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 32.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 29.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 25.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 70c | 23.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…8d26backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e70…7182backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed No | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 68c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.