Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2bd0b5618d02687c569c87b1b903717bb19094054b50662fab012622ad4035b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 437.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 9c | 398.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +12.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 374.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 9c | 334.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 331.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 28c | 325.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 18c | 306.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 270.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 26c | 255.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 136 | 13.2%18 W · 118 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 252.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 223.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 24c | 189.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 170.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 30c | 155$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 154$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 11c | 145.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 139.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 139$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 124.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 16c | 105.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 26c | 103.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 100.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 93.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 92.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 90.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 32c | 87.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 86.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 85.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 16c | 76.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 360 | 32.2%116 W · 244 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 75.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 74c | 73.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 73.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 72.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 29c | 68.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed Yes | 36c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 44.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 42c | 42.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 28c | 42.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 38.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…b785backed No | 69c | 37.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 30c | 33.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 24.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 22.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 74c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 76c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.