Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3af9cb21f95ebb97646691cbbca548bb5b971e2056351b4121c1b5d1738f806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd602…d370backed No | 53c | 1,875$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 666.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 567$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 54c | 551.79$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.77 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 57c | 412.6$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 37c | 386.22$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 303.86$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 278.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 57c | 219.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 61c | 198.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 189.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 62c | 176.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 167.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 156.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 139.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed Yes | 54c | 134.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 126.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 123.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 57c | 115.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 106.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 103.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 96.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 47c | 96.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 47c | 96.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 91.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 13c | 83.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 56c | 71.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 67.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 61.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 61.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 58c | 53.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 47c | 51.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 79c | 50.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 49.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 46.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 42.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 46c | 41.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 74c | 40.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 51c | 31.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed No | 43c | 30.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 53c | 28.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 46c | 26.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 45c | 25.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 49c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 23.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 22.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 53c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9e2abacked Yes | 73c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 59c | 16.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.