TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, Pittsburgh Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$787,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$788,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Louisville Cardinals50c601,131$303,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297,594.0435945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Pittsburgh Panthers49c200,000$98,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,0009652.1%50 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pittsburgh Panthers49c135,054$66,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,176.5313649.3%67 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Louisville Cardinals46c124,036$57,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,656.9689645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Pittsburgh Panthers49c112,000$54,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,88021754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Pittsburgh Panthers54c100,000$54,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,0009050%45 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c87,244$44,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,494.3769142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Louisville Cardinals51c34,500$17,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,9054047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pittsburgh Panthers49c30,000$14,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,75090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pittsburgh Panthers51c15,926$8,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,107.3112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Pittsburgh Panthers55c13,824$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,600.3819950.3%100 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c13,567$6,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,972.11,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Pittsburgh Panthers53c12,222$6,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,477.663154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Pittsburgh Panthers49c12,193$5,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,974.5213154.2%71 W · 60 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c5,325$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.925759.6%34 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c4,500$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2951225%3 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-52.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Louisville Cardinals50c4,400$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20010441.3%43 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c4,082$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.53850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ea…0637backed Pittsburgh Panthers49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9602454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Pittsburgh Panthers49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96011555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pittsburgh Panthers53c3,789$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.294,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50021248.1%102 W · 110 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017050.6%86 W · 84 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Pittsburgh Panthers50c1,060$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.48351.8%43 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Pittsburgh Panthers50c825$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.56144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c750$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.926740.8%109 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Louisville Cardinals51c635.17$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.586445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c470.59$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Louisville Cardinals62c414.37$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.75,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c345.01$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8435050.3%176 W · 174 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Pittsburgh Panthers6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181048.7%9 W · 95 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Pittsburgh Panthers70c285.89$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20113851.4%71 W · 67 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Pittsburgh Panthers49c279.14$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6618046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Pittsburgh Panthers52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10411159.5%66 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c169.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7919653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d8…2a94backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c146.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.493745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Louisville Cardinals11c118.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.815438.9%21 W · 33 L+15.0wins+0.28per pick11cpaid+213.8%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Pittsburgh Panthers52c105.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8819657.1%112 W · 84 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5114654.1%79 W · 67 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Pittsburgh Panthers52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018656.5%105 W · 81 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011147.7%53 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c79.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5962753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…277ebacked Pittsburgh Panthers50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356154.1%33 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Pittsburgh Panthers48c68.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.854050%20 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c60.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0912054.2%65 W · 55 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa1…987ebacked Louisville Cardinals51c56.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Pittsburgh Panthers49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Pittsburgh Panthers55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.671,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60d…2204backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Pittsburgh Panthers49c40.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82b…e65abacked Pittsburgh Panthers50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a0…d84fbacked Pittsburgh Panthers51c33.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.036144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Louisville Cardinals45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3336248.6%176 W · 186 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Louisville Cardinals49c31.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1657335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e7…fef1backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c29.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.826238.7%24 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe33c…6006backed Pittsburgh Panthers51c28.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Louisville Cardinals45c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.429442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec5…65ecbacked Pittsburgh Panthers51c24.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.332839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Pittsburgh Panthers50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c1b…8b9abacked Pittsburgh Panthers50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.