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Champions League · resolved market

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under67c1,289$870 inWon+$419.031,06236.3%386 W · 676 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebb…9305backed Over62c1,162$720 inLost-$720.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eef…83aabacked Over34c999.5$340 inLost-$339.833231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over34c724.83$246 inLost-$246.3739043.6%170 W · 220 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under66c510.53$337 inWon+$173.585350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…8260backed Under69c429.32$296 inWon+$133.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over29c399.75$117 inLost-$116.8570%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c286.03$209 inWon+$77.112,10143.6%917 W · 1,184 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over31c270.39$83 inLost-$83.311,14135.4%404 W · 737 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under66c239.35$158 inWon+$81.7457347.6%273 W · 300 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over39c238.97$93 inLost-$93.088318.1%15 W · 68 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a62…4ab9backed Over12c210$25 inLost-$25.2933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under66c187.43$124 inWon+$63.7363748.4%308 W · 329 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over31c100$31 inLost-$3149751.9%258 W · 239 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed Over35c42$15 inLost-$14.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked Under66c40.8$27 inWon+$13.871241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ae…2ff5backed Under29c40.76$12 inWon+$28.77633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Under65c34.6$22 inWon+$12.116346%29 W · 34 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1af3…fbe3backed Over33c33$11 inLost-$10.89100%0 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Under66c20$13 inWon+$6.86056.7%34 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…1e9fbacked Under66c15.31$10 inWon+$5.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.