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Champions League · resolved market

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,540 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over3c16,084$443 inLost-$443.122,10143.6%917 W · 1,184 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over7c7,914$591 inLost-$590.7554239.5%214 W · 328 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over15c3,000$450 inLost-$4503912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Over16c2,620$423 inLost-$422.938927%24 W · 65 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…0c04backed Over14c2,274$314 inLost-$314.43911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-86.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ebb…9305backed Over13c1,200$156 inLost-$156742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfafd…3598backed Over8c1,194$96 inLost-$95.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…9fc9backed Over14c1,054$148 inLost-$147.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Over15c1,000$150 inLost-$15014020.7%29 W · 111 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over6c990.96$56 inLost-$55.781,59639.8%636 W · 960 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over17c914.59$155 inLost-$155.4863748.4%308 W · 329 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over3c861$26 inLost-$25.8320936.8%77 W · 132 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over6c833.42$51 inLost-$50.957856.4%44 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over10c756$78 inLost-$77.9939043.6%170 W · 220 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over17c651.92$111 inLost-$110.8357347.6%273 W · 300 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over7c605$42 inLost-$42.218318.1%15 W · 68 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Over16c499.98$80 inLost-$8050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over3c450.24$13 inLost-$13.2233057.6%190 W · 140 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over3c449.53$13 inLost-$12.7519259.9%115 W · 77 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over14c368.62$52 inLost-$51.6151746.2%239 W · 278 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a5…6f1fbacked Over16c317.23$49 inLost-$49.26540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over16c225$36 inLost-$36.0553546.7%250 W · 285 L+2.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over16c200$32 inLost-$328457.1%48 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over14c102.37$14 inLost-$14.3316852.4%88 W · 80 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.