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Champions League · resolved market

Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Olympique Lyonnaisof Fenerbahçe SK, Olympique Lyonnais
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Fenerbahçe SK16c3,392$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2554239.5%214 W · 328 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Olympique Lyonnais76c2,071$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.392,10143.6%917 W · 1,184 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…8260backed Fenerbahçe SK25c1,129$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fenerbahçe SK26c1,020$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.11,59639.8%636 W · 960 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Fenerbahçe SK3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Olympique Lyonnais74c914.19$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.18318.1%15 W · 68 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bae…cec4backed Fenerbahçe SK26c884.8$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Olympique Lyonnais74c680.13$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.8339042.3%165 W · 225 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Olympique Lyonnais72c620.75$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.816547.7%31 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Olympique Lyonnais76c510.61$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5532150.5%162 W · 159 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afc…317abacked Fenerbahçe SK19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Olympique Lyonnais76c454$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.588357.8%48 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Fenerbahçe SK14c449.5$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.474434.1%15 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fenerbahçe SK8c423$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8426145.6%119 W · 142 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1425…6e0cbacked Fenerbahçe SK26c386.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+258%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Fenerbahçe SK24c382.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.728927%24 W · 65 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Fenerbahçe SK26c380.19$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.852528%7 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Fenerbahçe SK27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Fenerbahçe SK27c369.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8918648.9%91 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Olympique Lyonnais74c294$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3953546.7%250 W · 285 L+2.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Olympique Lyonnais76c277.76$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1249751.9%258 W · 239 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Fenerbahçe SK25c246.62$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.241,14135.4%404 W · 737 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5887…735ebacked Fenerbahçe SK25c240$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fenerbahçe SK24c224$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7618141.4%75 W · 106 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Olympique Lyonnais75c222.86$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7114020.7%29 W · 111 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecc…415abacked Fenerbahçe SK24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Fenerbahçe SK25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509349.5%46 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256c…259bbacked Fenerbahçe SK24c154.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Olympique Lyonnais75c152.27$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4372548.6%352 W · 373 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Fenerbahçe SK25c152$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Fenerbahçe SK25c144.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.984542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Olympique Lyonnais75c140.03$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1742444.1%187 W · 237 L-22.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Fenerbahçe SK21c137.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4541743.4%181 W · 236 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Olympique Lyonnais75c134.41$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.64866.7%32 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc6…8dacbacked Fenerbahçe SK25c132.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Fenerbahçe SK25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89ca…e129backed Fenerbahçe SK18c118$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…7551backed Fenerbahçe SK25c113.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Fenerbahçe SK26c96.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.971855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Fenerbahçe SK25c84.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7410160.4%61 W · 40 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Olympique Lyonnais75c81.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5832931.9%105 W · 224 L-26.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1082…48d3backed Fenerbahçe SK25c79.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Olympique Lyonnais75c79.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1939043.6%170 W · 220 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf11…8836backed Fenerbahçe SK24c68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Olympique Lyonnais74c67.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6261741.5%256 W · 361 L-21.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Fenerbahçe SK26c66.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.511266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Olympique Lyonnais79c63.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5510546.7%49 W · 56 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Fenerbahçe SK23c58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3430345.9%139 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Fenerbahçe SK27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Fenerbahçe SK25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56440.6%26 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb284…b1fbbacked Fenerbahçe SK27c40.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ad…089abacked Fenerbahçe SK25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e8b…856bbacked Olympique Lyonnais77c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf5…9d6fbacked Olympique Lyonnais77c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Olympique Lyonnais77c27.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3433057.6%190 W · 140 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Olympique Lyonnais77c27.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3419259.9%115 W · 77 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Olympique Lyonnais78c26.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.816167.1%108 W · 53 L+12.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Olympique Lyonnais77c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.528470.2%59 W · 25 L+11.6wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Olympique Lyonnais75c18.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6812053.3%64 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Olympique Lyonnais73c18.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9717556.6%99 W · 76 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.