Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdce99c7510cb4e1b2daf39a09d29b3e5a7a8f6568bb720aa8bf9a5da9aaf7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Olympique Lyonnaisof Fenerbahçe SK, Olympique Lyonnais
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fenerbahçe SK | 16c | 3,392$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.25 | 542 | 39.5%214 W · 328 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Olympique Lyonnais | 76c | 2,071$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.39 | 2,101 | 43.6%917 W · 1,184 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…8260backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 1,129$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fenerbahçe SK | 26c | 1,020$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 1,596 | 39.8%636 W · 960 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…178dbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 74c | 914.19$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.1 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…cec4backed Fenerbahçe SK | 26c | 884.8$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 74c | 680.13$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 390 | 42.3%165 W · 225 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Olympique Lyonnais | 72c | 620.75$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 76c | 510.61$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 321 | 50.5%162 W · 159 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…317abacked Fenerbahçe SK | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Olympique Lyonnais | 76c | 454$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Fenerbahçe SK | 14c | 449.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 8c | 423$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 261 | 45.6%119 W · 142 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…6e0cbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 26c | 386.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +258%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Fenerbahçe SK | 24c | 382.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Fenerbahçe SK | 26c | 380.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Fenerbahçe SK | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Fenerbahçe SK | 27c | 369.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 186 | 48.9%91 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 74c | 294$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 535 | 46.7%250 W · 285 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Olympique Lyonnais | 76c | 277.76$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 497 | 51.9%258 W · 239 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 246.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 1,141 | 35.4%404 W · 737 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…735ebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 24c | 224$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 222.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 140 | 20.7%29 W · 111 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…415abacked Fenerbahçe SK | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…259bbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 24c | 154.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 152.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 725 | 48.6%352 W · 373 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 144.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 140.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 424 | 44.1%187 W · 237 L | -22.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Fenerbahçe SK | 21c | 137.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 417 | 43.4%181 W · 236 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 134.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…8dacbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 132.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…e129backed Fenerbahçe SK | 18c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…7551backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 113.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Fenerbahçe SK | 26c | 96.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 84.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 81.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 329 | 31.9%105 W · 224 L | -26.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1082…48d3backed Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 79.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 79.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 390 | 43.6%170 W · 220 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…8836backed Fenerbahçe SK | 24c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 74c | 67.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 617 | 41.5%256 W · 361 L | -21.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Fenerbahçe SK | 26c | 66.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Olympique Lyonnais | 79c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Fenerbahçe SK | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 303 | 45.9%139 W · 164 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Fenerbahçe SK | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 27c | 40.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…089abacked Fenerbahçe SK | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…856bbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…9d6fbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Olympique Lyonnais | 77c | 27.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 330 | 57.6%190 W · 140 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Olympique Lyonnais | 77c | 27.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Olympique Lyonnais | 78c | 26.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 161 | 67.1%108 W · 53 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Olympique Lyonnais | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +11.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Olympique Lyonnais | 75c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Olympique Lyonnais | 73c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 175 | 56.6%99 W · 76 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)this page
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 5.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Team to AdvanceFenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.