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Champions League · resolved market

Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Fenerbahçe SKof Olympique Lyonnais, Fenerbahçe SK
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,994 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb619…5068backed Olympique Lyonnais10c6,000$600 inLost-$599.977250%36 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ebb…9305backed Olympique Lyonnais29c1,911$548 inLost-$548.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Olympique Lyonnais11c1,818$200 inLost-$2004839.6%19 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+91.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Olympique Lyonnais10c999.99$100 inLost-$1008927%24 W · 65 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…0c04backed Olympique Lyonnais34c940.29$321 inLost-$320.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-86.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Olympique Lyonnais10c940$94 inLost-$9418141.4%75 W · 106 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Olympique Lyonnais11c500$55 inLost-$551353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fenerbahçe SK70c420$294 inWon+$12626145.6%119 W · 142 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Fenerbahçe SK69c400$276 inWon+$1246847.1%32 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Olympique Lyonnais11c362.55$39 inLost-$39.0679935.3%282 W · 517 L-36.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Olympique Lyonnais10c350$35 inLost-$355226.9%14 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Fenerbahçe SK65c275.29$179 inWon+$96.35478.5%4 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-73.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Olympique Lyonnais10c206.35$21 inLost-$20.647345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Fenerbahçe SK69c200$137 inWon+$637749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Fenerbahçe SK69c195$135 inWon+$60.457557.3%43 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Olympique Lyonnais18c181$32 inLost-$31.758318.1%15 W · 68 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Fenerbahçe SK71c73$52 inWon+$21.1719442.8%83 W · 111 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Fenerbahçe SK66c50$33 inWon+$173831.6%12 W · 26 L-8.4wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.