MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa449a8c6f59d726d568bd4e21ee94948ed2564582f14364f27bd2a47154c0788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Astros, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Astros | 27c | 16,700$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,478.89 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Astros | 60c | 16,423$9,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,853.73 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 40c | 12,122$4,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,273.2 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 40c | 7,967$3,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,740.63 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 78c | 6,322$4,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.52 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 25c | 6,005$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.7 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rays | 49c | 4,319$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.4 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Astros | 60c | 4,154$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Astros | 5c | 3,251$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Astros | 52c | 3,171$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.91 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 22c | 3,020$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Rays | 70c | 2,926$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.79 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rays | 39c | 1,374$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.3 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Rays | 40c | 1,173$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.8 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Astros | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Astros | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9598…1fd2backed Astros | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8086…22b7backed Rays | 41c | 990$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 44c | 940$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.4 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 38c | 761.99$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.45 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Rays | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…42cbbacked Astros | 35c | 676$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Rays | 63c | 634.41$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.81 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Astros | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Astros | 57c | 438.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.84 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Astros | 59c | 363.51$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.39 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 61c | 328.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Rays | 39c | 328$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.46 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Astros | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Astros | 35c | 278.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…b1dcbacked Astros | 56c | 222$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a39…e798backed Rays | 44c | 222$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Rays | 40c | 220$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Rays | 40c | 206.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Rays | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Astros | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rays | 41c | 157.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 57c | 129.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Rays | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Rays | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Astros | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…9b68backed Rays | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 27c | 98.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Rays | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Astros | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Rays | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Rays | 44c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rays | 42c | 63.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Astros | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Astros | 55c | 52.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Astros | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Rays | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…f416backed Rays | 45c | 49.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2a70backed Astros | 56c | 49.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Rays | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…7178backed Astros | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Astros | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c293backed Astros | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…183dbacked Rays | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Astros | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.