Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa454a98c451d635ee4d928ab690d694541868169b296bb3a5d01c9383fd8e438
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 13,998$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…e815backed No | 79c | 1,111$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…d464backed Yes | 21c | 1,111$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 16c | 1,093$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 9c | 820.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 692.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…800bbacked Yes | 21c | 576$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c10…9178backed No | 79c | 576$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked No | 79c | 570.79$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…c460backed Yes | 11c | 488.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…4bd1backed Yes | 5c | 321.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 11c | 273.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Yes | 17c | 266.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…6d64backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 10c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 16c | 188.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 170.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 167.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…b10fbacked Yes | 15c | 162.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 9c | 159.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd5…41b5backed Yes | 10c | 147.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…0cb5backed Yes | 15c | 131.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 115.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x178a…751bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…ab2bbacked No | 78c | 111.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 95.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 23c | 87.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 48cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…b56bbacked Yes | 37c | 67.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…778bbacked No | 72c | 64.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd963…47a1backed Yes | 35c | 57.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?this page
- Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.